DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

A conversation among Whalers
Jefecinco
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DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Jefecinco » Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:43 am

We have not yet removed all the debris from Sally and a few customers remain without power or internet. Thus far I have to award CY2020 a big fat "F".
Butch

Hoosier
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Hoosier » Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:30 pm

Butch, This one is starting to look like she's gonna be worse than Sally:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... s#contents
1978 Outrage V20 with 2004 Suzuki DF-115. 1992 23 Walkaround with two 2010 Yamaha F-150s.

Jefecinco
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Jefecinco » Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:54 am

Delta is currently a Cat 3. Closer to shore the waters are a little cooler so there is some hope Delta will weaken to a Cat 2 virtually at landfall. Sally's cone passed over our home as a Cat 2 and it was intense. We don't care to experience a Cat 3's maximum intensity.

A big problem here is that debris is stacked curbside in much of our community. When that becomes airborne the implications will be huge. Cat 3 winds start at a sustained 110 MPH. Consider a sawed tree limb striking a door or window at that speed.
Butch

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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Hoosier » Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:48 pm

The latest NHC post has Delta going to the delta, a good ways west of you. BUT, they said that about Sally.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... s#contents

Take care and stay safe.
1978 Outrage V20 with 2004 Suzuki DF-115. 1992 23 Walkaround with two 2010 Yamaha F-150s.

jimh
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby jimh » Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:51 am

The probability of DELTA reaching storm force winds in the Orange Beach, Alabama, area is predicted to be between five and 10-percent.

DELTA_WindProbabilities.jpg
Fig. 1. Predicted wind probabilities for storm DELTA posted on Wednesday, October 7, 2020.
DELTA_WindProbabilities.jpg (83.69 KiB) Viewed 1831 times

Jefecinco
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Jefecinco » Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:55 am

If the predicted "Zone of Uncertainty" is accurate we have little to worry about in Alabama. The predictions provided by the Hurricane Center for Sally were inaccurate which caused much difficulty here. By the time we realized we were about to be hammered it was too late for the Governor to declare an evacuation order, although local authorities did strongly urge evacuation. Alabama law reserves the authority to order evacuation to the Governor.

We are thankful Sally was a Category-2 storm. Actually, only hours before making landfall here Sally's intensity was predicted to be only at Tropical Storm level.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center does an exceptional job and seldom fails to accurately predict hurricane tracks and intensity levels. That's a very good thing except we tend to put too much faith in their predictions. The lesson learned is that if there is a hurricane in the Gulf we must make initial preparations at the very least. These storms are not always very predictable.
Butch

jimh
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby jimh » Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:23 pm

Re the path of tropical storms and hurricanes: a professional mariner noted in an interesting book that he was always annoyed by land-based weather forecasters who would often report that a major storm's track had changed, the the storm had "gone safely out to sea."

For the ships at sea, a major storm is still a peril, and there is little about it that engenders any safety for a ship. Just ask the relatives and loved ones of the crew of the American freighter EL FARO, lost at sea with no survivors in October 2015 in hurricane JOAQUIN .

I have forgotten the author and the book title, but I well remember the point he was making.

Tom Hemphill
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Tom Hemphill » Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:21 pm

The book about the sinking of the El Faro which jimh speaks of is Into the Raging Sea by Rachael Slade.

Masbama
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Masbama » Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:15 pm

I knew it would steer away from the Alabama coast as soon as my new generator arrived this morning. That being said it will land somewhere so the best to those folks. I hope they are prepared and it fizzles out in the gulf so we finally can enjoy our fall.

Jefecinco
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Jefecinco » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:40 am

I believe there was a hurricane in December of one year which hit the Gulf Coast. We shift our attention to more pleasant things by November so three more weeks and we begin to relax.

Storms at sea are scary events but the loss of life and property is usually far less than for hurricanes coming ashore. In 1951 we were returning from living in England on the old ILE DE FRANCE. I was eleven and enjoying the adventure. The North Atlantic weather turned ugly and we were rolling quite a bit. I remember breaking my little finger going up a stairway. The ships attitude was so steep that I literally ran into the stairs.

Getting out of my bunk the next morning I discovered the ship was not underway. We were next to a much smaller ship which was in trouble. Our ship had fired a line to the foundering ship and our crew was taking the other ships crew aboard using a sling pulled back and forth between the ships. We saw the other ship literally break in half as the last two crewmen were rescued. That was an unforgettable event and I remember it vividly all years these later.
Butch

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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Hoosier » Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:00 am

I went looking for your 1951 rescue and found this:

SS ÎLE DE FRANCE

For actions on July 26, 1956
Gallant Ship Award citation:

“Responding unhesitatingly to an SOS from the sinking ANDREA DORIA off Nantucket Island in the North Atlantic on the night of July 25, 1956, the Île de France altered course and raced from many miles away to the side of the stricken ship. Holding a position close to the sinking vessel, and by her very presence giving courage to passengers and crew clinging to the wreck, she launched thirteen lifeboats, which in a series of trips, and aided by the lifeboats of other ships, brought back to the Île de France a total of seven hundred and fifty-three survivors, some seriously injured. All were taken safely aboard, contributing to one of the greatest marine rescues in history.

The courage, resourcefulness, sound seamanship and teamwork of her master, officers and crew in successfully completing an extraordinary rescue operation caused the name of the Île de France to be perpetuated as a Gallant ship.”
1978 Outrage V20 with 2004 Suzuki DF-115. 1992 23 Walkaround with two 2010 Yamaha F-150s.

jimh
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby jimh » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:36 pm

Tom Hemphill wrote:The book about the sinking of the El Faro which jimh speaks of is Into the Raging Sea by Rachael Slade.


I do recall reading that book, and but I think the comment I mentioned about land-based weather reporters using the phrase about storms moving "safely out to sea" was from another author and a different book, one I read may years ago.

The EL FARO was a tragedy, but not entirely without some bad decisions by the master, who was perhaps unduly influenced by his masters at the shipping company to maintain a time schedule. On a global basis, a large commercial ship is lost almost every two weeks, but seldom reported in the USA mass media.

jimh
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby jimh » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:43 pm

Either Butch's memory is wrong about 1951, or the ILE DE FRANCE was helping another ship in 1951, not the ANDEIA DORIA in 1956.

The loss of the ANDREA DORIA was quite a sensation in 1956 because its collision and sinking occurred close enough to shore that aerial photography with motion pictures could be shown on broadcast television news in a matter of hours. For 1956 technology, the sinking was being broadcast in near real-time coverage. Radio stations did live broadcasts from airplanes.

Hoosier
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Hoosier » Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:08 pm

I think Butch was thinking of this event in 1953. Hell, I've been in 50' seas in the North Atlantic and it's easy to get the "when" wrong. Anyway, here ya go:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHLpCulmVDc
1978 Outrage V20 with 2004 Suzuki DF-115. 1992 23 Walkaround with two 2010 Yamaha F-150s.

Jefecinco
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Jefecinco » Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:09 am

Dave - There were similarities between the rescue you cited and the one I witnessed. As I recall no lifeboats were used in the 1951 Winter rescue I witnessed although I may have missed that as the rescue was ongoing when I arrived to the promenade deck. The freighter I watched sink was smaller than the one in the 1953 event with fewer crew members. I've found nothing on Bing or Google concerning a 1951 rescue. Perhaps because it was less noteworthy or other news of the time, think Korea, made a better story. I remember the year clearly as I was in 6th Grade (age 11) and looking forward to attending school with Americans after experiencing an English Public School. Looking back I remember English schooling very favorably. One of the best things was class size, I believe six or eight of us, a beautiful French Language teacher and field trips to several points of interest to a New Mexico "cowboy" such as the Royal Mews or stables and sitting in the Coronation Coach until I was caught and from which I was very unceremoniously removed. My ear was sore for several days. Brits can be pretty nasty when annoyed, my wife included.
Butch

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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Hoosier » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:11 pm

I couldn't find anything about the rescue in 1951 either. What it does say is that the Ille De France was an exceptional ship when you consider the three rescues we know about.
1978 Outrage V20 with 2004 Suzuki DF-115. 1992 23 Walkaround with two 2010 Yamaha F-150s.

jimh
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby jimh » Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:29 pm

DELTA seems to have decreased to below storm level.

Hoosier
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Hoosier » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:42 am

Here we go again: ZETA is aimed right at the central Gulf Coast.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... s#contents
1978 Outrage V20 with 2004 Suzuki DF-115. 1992 23 Walkaround with two 2010 Yamaha F-150s.

Jefecinco
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Re: DELTA--Another Gulf Hurricane

Postby Jefecinco » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:11 am

As of 7:00 AM Zeta landfall is expected on the Southeastern Louisiana coast this afternoon as a hurricane rapidly weakening to a tropical storm.

This morning around 7:50 local the sky was red and casting red light on structures. I'm 80 and have never before seen this phenomena. I was reminded of the old sailors saying, "Red sky at night sailors delight. Red sky at morning sailors warning." It seemed very appropriate. It was very strange to see structures colored red or strictly speaking pink or rose shaded.
Butch