Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

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jimh
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Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:14 am

For two years another thread has been following the water level changes in the Great Lakes, particularly in Lake Michigan. I will use this thread to track water levels in 2021.

The Lake Michigan water level in March 2021 is now considerably lower than experienced throughout 2020, down about one foot from the March 2020 level.

Of particular interest to me is the situation at Northport, Michigan, where I use the launch ramp and the fuel dock. The municipal marina at Northport, the G. Marsten Dame Marina, is owned by the Village of Northport. I visited the marina on March 24, 2021.

Image
Fig. 1. Aerial view of the marina at Northport, Michigan.

At the moment the launch ramp is available for use and being used by recreational anglers with boats of 15 to 20-feet. The parking lot is finally completely ABOVE lake level. These are welcomed changes from 2020 when at various times about one-quarter of the parking lot was underwater and to reach the courtesy dock required wading out to it through several inches of water.

The Village of Northport has undertaken a substantial renovation of the main dock ("C" dock) and its fuel dock. The deck level has been raised about 16-inches. New steel I-beams have been laid atop the original steel supports, and a new wood deck surface has been laid atop the steel risers. All new electrical conduits have been installed, now well above the waterline at the main dock. New individual pedestals for power and water will be installed at each slip on the main dock and will provide 50-Ampere, 30-Ampere, or 20-Ampere 120-VAC power, as appropriate to the slip size. New PEX water lines have been installed to each adjoining slip. And new gasoline and diesel fuel pipes have been run to the fuel dock dispensing pumps from the fuel storage tanks on shore.

dockNorthPort.jpg
Fig. 2. The main dock at Northport, Michigan, showing the dockmaster building and the fuel dock. Much new electrical conduit and new circuits are in the process of being installed. The gray and blue conduits may be associated with the fuel pumps.
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dockNorthportDeck.jpg
Fig. 3. The new decking laid atop the new steel on the main dock at Northport, Michigan. The water level from the prior year (2020) can been seen on the old steel I-beams from the white watermarks.
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dockNorthportDeck2.jpg
Fig. 4. The land end of the main dock at Northport, Michigan, showing new water lines and new electrical conduits.
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This work is being done under the "Northport Marina Dock Phase 1 Repair Project." The work included in this phase is:
  • Raising of dock with structural steel including all bracing, bolting, and welding
  • Removal and replacement of wood decking
  • Temporary relocation of existing harbor master house
  • New electrical service, distribution, and marina service outlets
  • New domestic water plumbing

The total project cost is "just under" $600,000. The Village has funded 51-percent of the cost, and the other 49-percent has been funded by a grant from the Michigan Waterways Commission. This phase of the project is scheduled for completion in April 2021.

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Phil T
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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby Phil T » Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:02 pm

I find it highly surprising the new docks are fixed rather than floating.

Given the variable level of the lake, it would, to me, be prudent to take this into account in the design. A future period of higher water levels will result in repeating the same damage as before.

Steel piles and concrete floats are very durable and long lasting. Even longer since it is fresh water.

Wood decking--wow.
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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:20 pm

Phil T wrote:Given the variable level of the lake, it would, to me, be prudent to take this into account in the design.

The water level has been going up and down in a cycle that lasts about 30 to 50-years as seen in collected data going back 300 years.

The water level in Lake Michigan-Lake Huron probably will take 30 years to exceed last year’s all-time modern era record level. By 2050 many parts of the docks would be about 90-years old. Maybe at that time there could be a complete rebuild. If I am still around I will be 100-years-old, and probably in need of some new replacement parts myself.

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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:55 pm

Phil T wrote:I find it highly surprising the new docks are fixed rather than floating.

There are about ten floating docks on the north side of the marina. They were installed in the last ten years. With the high water they became completely unusable. The shore deck level had ramps intended to slope downward to finger pier floating docks. With high water the ramps ended up sloping upward into mid-air, making access to the finger piers completely impossible. All the hinged ramps had to be removed and new and shorter ramps fabricated to work with the all-time modern-era record-level of water.

In Michigan there is an extensive series of marinas that provide harbors or refuge and docking, constructed with support from the State of Michigan. Most of these marinas were built beginning in the 1960's. None were built with floating docks. The notion that all the existing dock infrastructure ought to be abandoned and replaced with new floating docks might sound good, but in the present-era I doubt there would be any political support for funding the expense. There are probably 100 harbors and marinas in the state-supported system. The state cannot keep the major roads in decent repair, so I doubt the political will exists to rebuild 100 marinas at public expense.

The "new docks" at the Northport marina are actual only one dock--"C" dock and its end pier the fuel dock. Even without any substantial replacement of the expensive work of the dock's pilings and structure, the marina is getting almost $600,000 to pay for "Phase 1" of the project. The population of Northport is about 500 people. $600,000 is a huge cost, about $1,200-per-resident. The only reason the village is investing in the marina to this extent is because the marina is a central feature of the village, and the income from rental of boat slips and purchase of fuel at the marina is the largest source of income for the village. Everyone loves the marina, and it brings boaters to the village, where they spend money.

Another problem with floating docks: they are most useful to small boats. The majority of the boats using the marina are larger boats, and the typical gunwale height of these larger boats is perhaps three-feet to four-feet above above the waterline. With floating docks all these boats would need to have steps on the floating dock to enable people to get off or onto their boats. The present height of the finger pier docks above the water is generally good for most boats. The shorter slips in shallower water have lower finger pier heights, and the longer, wider slips in the deepest water have taller finger pier heights. This gives a good match to boats of varying size.

Floating docks in the Great Lakes have another problem distinct for coastal saltwater areas that might use floating docks: the freshwater freezes in the winter. Although everyone seems to be fixated on warming trends, in Michigan we had one of the coldest winters on record in 2018-2019. The winter was so cold that there was still ice in Lake Superior in June. The entire Grand Traverse Bay froze over. Inside the marina break wall the water remains calm and ice can grow faster there than in open water where wind and waves break up the ice. Winter ice in marinas is a significant concern, and literally no one leaves their boat in the water over the winter in a marina up here.

In the case of the Northport marina dock renovation project, the end of "C" dock is the fuel dock, and also the site of the marina office. To convert to a floating dock for the office building, the fuel pumps, and the holding tank pump-out would require a floating dock be able to support a lot of equipment and weight. I am sure it could be done. But at what cost and what advantage would accrue? Having the marina office at the end of the "C" dock pier is very handy for the staff and for the boaters. All the services are there, and you pay for them there. The water depth in the marina decreases as you get closer to shore. That's why the fuel dock is out at the end of "C" dock.

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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:03 pm

Phil T wrote:Wood decking--wow.

What other material would you suggest for the deck level of the piers?

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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby Phil T » Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:53 pm

All the marinas I have visited in New England use floats of varying construction. They support boats in size from 15' to 250' super yachts (have a helicopter on the upper deck and/or tender inside the fantail).

As for decking, if boards are required, composite materials. Other materials include stamped metal planks or panels or concrete.
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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Fri Mar 26, 2021 4:25 pm

Phil T wrote:All the marinas I have visited in New England use floats of varying construction.

Yes, I can certainly believe that in New England all coastal marina might use floating docks. In water with diurnal tides it makes great sense to use floating docks. However, in the Great Lakes the water level does not vary during a 24-hour period unless a seiche occurs--and they are rare.

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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Fri Mar 26, 2021 4:28 pm

Phil T wrote:As for decking, if boards are required, composite materials. Other materials include stamped metal planks or panels or concrete.

I certainly would not want to strike the hullside or gunwale of my classic fiberglass boat into concrete or metal deck surfaces. Wood is more forgiving. I cannot reacall any marina docks in the Great Lakes using anything but wood for the deck layer on their docks and finger piers. Maybe here in the Great Lakes we are in a backwater of modern docking. But where else can you cruise in beautiful water and have a public marina spaced about 20 to 30 miles apart all along several thousand miles of coastline waiting for you with an inexpensive transient slip for overnight docking?

Over at Leland the town did spend a fortune on new docks and most are floating docks and they might have some composite decking, but Leland has a demographic with more millionaires who can write $100,000 checks to fund the marina than Northport does.

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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Fri Mar 26, 2021 4:30 pm

Phil T wrote:... floats ... support boats in size from 15' to 250' super yachts.


Here the draft of 250-foot super yachts generally precludes them entering most marinas. Typically the available draft in a marina is about six feet to perhaps 12-feet.

Visits to public marinas in the Great Lakes by 250-foot super yachts are very unusual occurrences. I don't think that designing our Great Lakes marinas to have facilities for 250-foot super yachts would be a good use of the state funds that pay for most marina construction. You might get some flak for using public money to help the super-rich.

If a 250-foot super yacht does call on a northern port like Northport, they can anchor out and send in their tender. But, to be honest, I am quite content with all the 250-foot super yachts staying out East and visiting the "floats" provided for them there.

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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Sat Mar 27, 2021 7:26 am

I mentioned some history of the State of Michigan recreational harbor program. Here is an excerpt from their website with more facts:

    The Harbor Program

    The state of Michigan began its Great Lakes Harbors Program in 1947 when the legislature created the Michigan State Waterways Commission. The Commission was granted authority and supporting funds to create a marine highway along the 3,000 miles of Great Lakes shoreline. From 1947 to 1964, the Waterways Commission developed 83 harbors of refuge, enabling tens of thousands of boaters to encircle Michigan using safe harbors and overnight hospitality. In 1966, when the new state constitution went into effect, the Waterways Commission became part of the Department of Conservation. It has since become part of the Department of Natural Resources. Today, the number of safe harbors has grown as the Waterways Commission continues its mission to provide safe public access to the Great Lakes and inland waters of this state.

    The program's goal is to locate harbors so that no boater will ever be more than 15 shoreline miles from safety. In a few places, it has not yet been possible to meet this goal, but the maps [ see below} show how extensive this network of harbors has become.

    Funding

    Boaters have paid for much of this harbor network through taxes on marine fuel purchases and boat registration fees. Under the Waterways Grant-In-Aid Program, local units of government are given grant funds for construction of facilities.

    In addition, the federal government supports the harbor program through funds allocated to the Dingell-Johnson Fund, administered by the Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Department of the Interior, for the development of boating facilities designed to match local contributions.

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers played an important role in the initial development and actual construction of the majority of Michigan's harbor network. The federal/state/local program of cooperation is aimed primarily at the development of facilities. Responsibility for continuing operation and maintenance lies with local communities, and so reasonable fees are charged for the upkeep and operation of docks and piers, showers, restrooms and other facilities at these harbors.

    Only where local resources are unable to support such facilities does the state consider assuming these responsibilities. As a result, the state of Michigan operates only 18 of Michigan's harbor facilities.

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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Sat Mar 27, 2021 7:38 am

Here are three maps showing the State of Michigan harbors.

UP_map_.jpg
Fig. 1. Upper Peninsula Harbors
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EastCoastMap.jpg
Fig. 2. East Coast Harbors
EastCoastMap.jpg (108.38 KiB) Viewed 3688 times


WestCoastMap.jpg
Fig. 3. West Coast Harbors
WestCoastMap.jpg (110.74 KiB) Viewed 3688 times


I don't think there is any other state with facilities like these.

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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Sat Mar 27, 2021 11:33 am

Getting back to the actual topic, Lake Michigan water levels for 2021, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) publishes their best guess every month. Their latest best guess is found at

https://lre-wm.usace.army.mil/ForecastD ... ch_hrn.pdf

Here is an excerpt from their graph that is current when I am writing:

USACE_BestGuess.png
Fig. 5. LAKES MICHIGAN-HURON WATER LEVELS--MARCH 2021. The red line is actual data; the blue line is long-term average of actual data. The green line is "most likely" outcome. The shaded red area is range of possible outcomes. Vertical scale is METERS above CHART DATUM.
USACE_BestGuess.png (14.67 KiB) Viewed 3667 times


Since 2020 was the record-setting year for high-water for the past maybe 100-years, there is no surprise that 2021 is not estimated to exceed those levels. The extraordinary high water in 2020 was probably due in some part to the extraordinarily cold winter of 2018-2019 over the Great Lakes which saw very high percentages of ice cover; ice cover reduces evaporation and creates higher water levels.

Reading the graph is a bit awkward for boaters thinking in terms of feet or inches. Each vertical division is 0.05-Meters or 1.97-inches--call it 2-inches. Looking at the level in February 2021 we see it is about five divisions or about 10-inches below 2020 level. The predicted range for Lake Michigan into July 2021 shows the water will be somewhere between 4-inches to 16-inches below July 2020, and the "most likely" level will be one-foot below last year.

More USACE data can be read at

https://lre-wm.usace.army.mil/ForecastData/MBOGLWL-combined_bulletin_and_backpage.pdf

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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby Don SSDD » Tue Mar 30, 2021 6:56 am

Mooring or docking with no six to eight-foot tide rise and fall every 11 hours really changes things. All our wharves use floats for vessel tie-up up to lengths of 50 to 75-feet. All our docks and floats are wooden, pressure treated lumber.

With global warming, I suppose the future may see the lakes water levels fall from higher temperatures causing more evaporation. Or possibly bigger rain storm events will come into the equation. We do get a bit of ice in our area in some harbours and all floats get removed in the winter.

One of the big advantages of saltwater boating in Nova Scotia is our low population, I frequently go boating on a nice summer day and see five to ten boats. On the other hand, there are very few places to buy fuel on the water due to the lack of boats and population.
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Re: Lake Michigan Water Levels 2021; Marina Repairs

Postby jimh » Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:38 am

As the USACE chart above shows, a typical variation in water level over six months might be ten inches for Lake Michigan. On an odd weather and winds situation a seiche might cause that much change in a hour, but they are rare and localized.

The science of weather is really a history profession. Meteorologists are very accurate about telling you what happened already. What happens even next week is quite difficult to accurately predict. What happens in ten years--a good guess perhaps. In the upper Great Lakes we have had an unusually cold, unusually snowy winter with total ice cover of the lakes, and an unusually warm, very little snow, and almost no ice winter, both in the last five years. We have a four-season climate here.

The notion that the water level and the air temperature in 1960 was the "right" water level and the "right" temperature for the Great Lakes is silly. There is clear evidence that in term of geologic time there were huge glaciers here and when they melted the water levels were hundreds of feet higher than today. People driving a Prius and thinking they are going to stop the climate from varying while they recharge their car battery from coal-fired electricity are delusional.