CONTINUOUSWAVE

The CEO of Brunswick, David Foulkes, seems to have attracted a lot of attention with his recent comments in an interview on the CNBC cable-television channel. Mr. Foulkes said:

"Raw demand is tremendously strong. What we’re really seeing is constrained supply. Even though we’re increasing capacity, because field inventories are so low...it’s probably going to be three years before we really get field inventory levels back to where they should be."

Regarding increased demand, Mr. Foulkes also mentioned that at the Ft. Lauderdale Boat Show "first-day sales of Boston Whaler boats increased by 50-percent versus the same show last year."

For access to what once were affordable luxury goods such as a new boat, it appears that the affluent are being driven out of the market by the super-affluent. With the larger Boston Whaler boats now priced at over a million dollars, buyers must have enormous wealth to be indulging in outboard-engine day-use boats at that price point.

As a guy who has never bought a new Boston Whaler boat, I now find that I truly cannot afford them any more.

I see all these new, expensive boats being trailered around town and I just can’t believe all these folks suddenly found all this disposable income.

Interest on loans is quite low. Not much regulation on boat loans compared to home loans.

It's all paper.

Due to high resale values, buyers trade in after a year or two and can pay off loan balance.

The days of buying and owning for many years is gone. Think Wall Street (the film) and Gordon Gecko, "greed is good".

I am not looking forward to when the music stops.

The willingness of a dealer to accept a two-year-old boat in excellent condition as a trade-in generally will depend on the buyer then using the trade-in credit to purchase an even larger boat. That's where the notion of the money being "all on paper" would come from.

This sort of buy-trade-buy-bigger cycle only works if there very little depreciation of the value of the boat being traded-in. The dealer must think he won't have that trade-in boat sitting on the lot for more than a few weeks before he sells it for more than he gave in the trade-in credit. That's how the buyer gets a generous trade-in credit for his two-year-old boat.

RIght now, with a big scarcity in the inventory of new boats available, there must be very brisk sales of those traded-in boats at a considerable profit to the dealers.

Phil T wrote:It's all paper.

I am not looking forward to when the music stops.

Couldn't agree more. The last time we saw the boat market crash is wasn't good for many. Some of the new boat owners are leverage so badly they can't get out from under the boat loan. While each brand takes a varying level of hit in a down market, it's not good for boating in general.

D-

It won't be fun. Gecko was an apt name for that character. It is, of course, the name of a very common lizard in the South.

Same goes for expensive pickup trucks, lots of people rolling over via trades. Stock market and housing prices can be included but it’s 13 years since 2008. A rising tide floats all boats, this has been a long tide. Was recently near the place in Nova Scotia that had a 56 ft rise to fall tide, that’s what all this activity reminds me of.