Gales of November

A conversation among Whalers
jimh
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Joined: Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:25 pm
Location: Michigan, Lower Peninsula
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Gales of November

Postby jimh » Sat Nov 05, 2022 6:44 am

The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab (GLREL) is predicting severe wave conditions on Lake Michigan today and tomorrow, and forecasting wave heights building to 20-feet in the northern-central portion.

GLREL_WaveHeightForecastNov2022.jpg
Fig. 1. Wave Height forecast for Lake Michigan from GLREL. This plot is for 0200 on Sunday November 6, 2022.
GLREL_WaveHeightForecastNov2022.jpg (122.78 KiB) Viewed 881 times


The wind speed forecast shows sustained winds from the Southwest at 40-knots or higher from about 2 a.m. Sunday until Noon Sunday, November 6, 2022. Winds of gale force are 34 to 47 knots. Winds of storm force are 48 knots or higher.

There are several ships heading southbound at this writing that will be encountering this storm.

LakeMichiganAISplotNov0520227am.jpg
Fig. 2. AIS positions of ships in northern Lake Michigan at 7 a.m. November 5, 2022, from MarineTraffic.com.
LakeMichiganAISplotNov0520227am.jpg (45.13 KiB) Viewed 879 times


I anticipate that some of those southbound ships may divert to take shelter in Good Harbor Bay, just south of Leland.

goodHarborBay.jpg
Fig. 3. Excerpt from NOAA Chart 14912 showing Good Harbor Bay.
goodHarborBay.jpg (88.19 KiB) Viewed 868 times


You can see the latest wave height model output at:

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/emf/waves/WW3/

As Gordon Lightfoot sang, “ When the Gales of November come early…”

jimh
Posts: 11673
Joined: Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:25 pm
Location: Michigan, Lower Peninsula
Contact:

Re: Gales of November

Postby jimh » Thu Nov 10, 2022 4:53 pm

According to AIS monitoring website, at least two commercial ships took refuge from the Gale in Good Harbor Bay. Thanks to very modern weather predictions, it appears that no big freighters had to weather the predicted 20-foot waves in central Lake Michigan.

On southbound large freight hugged the western shore of Lake Michigan all the way down the lake, avoiding the big seas in the central lake.