Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

A conversation among Whalers
FlyingAnvils
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Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

Postby FlyingAnvils » Sun May 28, 2023 11:44 pm

Q1: I may re-power my 2010 150 SUPER SPORT with new a Suzuki 75-HP engine. What would the boat be worth in 2027 or 2028?

BACK STORY

I have a 2010 150 SUPER SPORT that is in really good condition, and it has spent its whole life on a private, freshwater lake that had a 40-HP engine limit, so the boat has a 2010 Mercury 40 EFI. I bought the boat to use on a different and larger public freshwater lakes as a water sports boat for my family. I have an eight-year-old son who likes to tube and also water ski with a buddy. When pulling a two-person tube with two eight-year-old boys while my wife and I are in the boat, the boat does not have enough power. The engine has to be run at full-throttle all the times, and the boat can only accelerate to 26-MPH. When not pulling a tube, the engine can accelerate to 6,000-RPM, and the boat will reach 29-MPH. We're really not cramped for space in the 150 SUPER SPORT--that part is fine. And 90-percent of the boat use is with just two people in the boat and the other two riding a tube.

I'm considering either re-powering the 150 SPORT, or continue to use for one year and then selling the 150 SPORT in 2024 and buying a bigger boat.

The 150 SUPER SPORT is rated for 60-HP maximum power, and maximum engine weight is specified at 260-lbs. Other owners of a 150 SUPER SPORT tell me re-powering with a 75-HP engine would be a better choice [than re-powering to 60-HP]. I'm trying to figure out the best plan.

I bought the 2010 150 SUPER SPORT for $10,000. I am confident I could use it until 2024, then sell it and get back all my money.

I could trade-in the 2010 Mercury 40-HP engine and get a new Suzuki 75-HP installed for an estimated total cost of about $8,000 additional. But I don't even know if that's a realistic estimate. If it were, then I would have $18,000 total costs and new engine.

jimh
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Re: Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

Postby jimh » Mon May 29, 2023 7:05 am

To predict the future value of your boat in four of five years is a difficult undertaking. There are many variables that could affect the future value. For example, gasoline might cost $10-per-gallon, and smaller boats might be in great demand. The economy could be in a deep recession, and discretionary income for boating could be very limited.

As a general rule, I would not expect to be able to recover all the costs associated with buying and installing a new engine on a particular boat after the engine has been used for four or five years. To be able to do that would be extraordinary.

At the moment, a c.2010 boat is 13-year-old-boat. That is at a point on the depreciation curve where there will not be a great change in the boat's value in the next five years, as long as the boat remains in excellent condition. But the change in value of an engine from new, never run, to five-years-old and run for five years will be greater and--unless something very odd occurs--will result in a decline in the engine's value.

Also, re-powering with an engine that exceeds the hull's maximum allowed engine power or weight will hamper future sale of the boat. Some buyers will be reticent to buy a boat with an engine that exceeds the hull's specified power and weight limits.

FlyingAnvils
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Re: Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

Postby FlyingAnvils » Mon May 29, 2023 8:48 am

I'm essentially just trying to figure out the best "bang for my buck" so to speak. [The 150 SUPER SPORT boat] definitely need more power than the 40-HP current engine.

I'm not sure how much a re-power would cost for 60 or 75-HP engine. I just took a guess at $8,000.

Even at a combined price of $18,000 I don't think I could find another brand or boat in the same condition as what I [would] have for $18,000.

Having younger kids in the boat, the bare essentials of the 150 SUPER SPORT make sense. There's no carpet. Drink spills, food crumbs, and just general added wear and tear on things from kids is something that I have zero worry about with the 150 SUPER SPORT. I just hose it out when it we get home, and the 150 SUPER SPORT is as good as new. There us really nothing on the boat that kids can accidentally break.

I am not set re-powering with a 75-HP engine. If I knew that a 60-HP would be plenty then that's what I would do.

I would just hate to spend say $7,000 on a 60-HP that [turns out to be] borderline-big-enough, when I could have spent a little more for a 75-HP and had more than enough power.

jimh
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Re: Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

Postby jimh » Mon May 29, 2023 10:03 am

You seem to be ignoring the manufacturer's maximum engine power rating of 60-HP.

A further concern you should assess: will a 15-foot boat with 75-HP be suitable for allowing your children to operate when they become a few years older. At some point your children will want to be able to take out the boat alone. Having a hot-rod 15-footer may not be the best choice for them.

Regarding how a boat responds to an increase in horsepower:

The acceleration rate and the top speed of a boat are always related to the power-to-weight ratio to the 0.5 exponent. For example, if you found that a 60-HP engine would not weigh any more than the current 40-HP, then the power-to-weight ratio would increase by a factor of 1.5, but the boat speed would only increase to 1.5^0.5 or 1.22. If the boat was able to reach 29-MPH with the 40-HP, then it would be able to reach 35-MPH with the 60-HP engine--but only if there were no weight increase. If there were a weight increase, then the power-to-weight ratio would be lower than 1.5, and the anticipated boat speed would be less.

If you increase to 75-HP from 40-HP, there will likely be an increase in boat weight. Assuming there was NOT any increase in weight, the power-to-weight ratio would then increase to 1.875. The maximum boat speed would then be almost 40-MPH. The amount of weight increase is hard to know. You have to have a figure for the total weight of the boat with passengers, fuel, gear, and everything else.

I can work out an estimate of the current boat weight from your top speed figure of 29-MPH using a performance estimating calculator I have created using the method proposed buy naval architect George Crouch. See

https://continuouswave.com/calculators/crouchCalc.php

Using the following inputs
POWER = 40
SPEED = 29
COEFFICIENT = 190

the calculator method finds the boat weight would be 1,717-lbs. The hull factor coefficient used is a reasonable value for a modern Boston Whaler hull. Now we can make an attempt to include the increase in boat weight due to a new engine. Assume the new 60-HP engine adds 100-lbs.

Returning to the calculator, with these inputs
HP=60
WEIGHT = 1817 (a 100-lbs increase)
COEFFICIENT = 190

the calculator predicts the boat speed to be 34.5-MPH.

Repeating the above with 75-HP gives 38.6-MPH predicted.

jimh
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Re: Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

Postby jimh » Mon May 29, 2023 10:10 am

Regarding getting a larger boat to replace the 150 SUPER SPORT, you should also consider these effects of the larger boat, other than the obvious initially higher purchase price:

  • more difficult and expensive to store, and may not fit in a garage
  • larger tow vehicle needed
  • more difficult to launch and load at boat ramps
  • increased operating costs due to more fuel consumption
  • increased costs for insurance

Getting into Boston Whaler boating with a nice 150 SUPER SPORT for only $10,000 was an excellent entry point into boating. And, as I mentioned, if the 150 SUPER SPORT is kept in excellent condition, sustains no damage, and the Mercury engine continues to run like new, there is little anticipated future depreciation expected.

FlyingAnvils
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Re: Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

Postby FlyingAnvils » Mon May 29, 2023 3:43 pm

I'll play around with the calculator and see what I come up with. I know and fully understand the ratings on the boat. I'm not trying to seriously overwhelm the capabilities of the boat, just maybe err on the side of having slightly more power than necessary than less.

And top speed is one factor, but probably not the biggest factor. I think the biggest drawback with the current 40 is that there just isn't a lot of "guts" to the boat. I'm pulling two 8-year old boys on a tube at WOT and they are usually asking to go faster. So end up having to sling them across the wake to get more speed and when doing sharper turns, the motor just really bogs down and doesn't have the guts to push through. I end up bleeding a lot of speed even though I've got the throttle pegged wide open. So I guess maybe hole-shot is more important than top speed.

As for weight, here's what the website specs are:

Current Merc 40hp 3-cylinder 204lbs
Merc 60hp 247lbs
Yamaha F70 (less than 70 actual hp) 253lbs
Suzuki DF60A 253lbs
Tohatsu 213lbs

75hp models
Merc 75 359lbs
Yamaha F75 353lbs
Suzuki DF75A 344lbs
Tohatsu 392lbs

FlyingAnvils
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Re: Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

Postby FlyingAnvils » Mon May 29, 2023 3:49 pm

jimh wrote:Regarding getting a larger boat to replace the 150 SUPER SPORT, you should also consider these effects of the larger boat, other than the obvious initially higher purchase price:

  • more difficult and expensive to store, and may not fit in a garage
  • larger tow vehicle needed
  • more difficult to launch and load at boat ramps
  • increased operating costs due to more fuel consumption
  • increased costs for insurance

Getting into Boston Whaler boating with a nice 150 SUPER SPORT for only $10,000 was an excellent entry point into boating. And, as I mentioned, if the 150 SUPER SPORT is kept in excellent condition, sustains no damage, and the Mercury engine continues to run like new, there is little anticipated future depreciation expected.


And I think getting a bigger boat is out of the question just in terms of overall cost. Probably 20-21ft would be the biggest boat I'd want to go up to and I have plenty of room for storage in a shop I have behind my house. And insurance is cheap so not really concerned about that. Fuel cost...meh. That's just the price you pay to have a boat and use it to have fun. But just the overall cost to find a 20ish foot boat, say an open bow ski boat, in the same condition as my whaler would be probably $20-$25K. So I know my current setup won't lose money and I know I get through this year and possibly next year before the "fun factor" starts to run out for my son. So I think it's probably a wash in terms of the cost I'd have invested in the boat after a repower versus just buying a bigger boat altogether. But one problem I'm noticing is that not many people are interested in a 150 SS with a 40hp. Everyone wants a 60. So I'm probably just as limited in resale in the current configuration as I would be if I was slightly overpowered.

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Phil T
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Re: Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

Postby Phil T » Mon May 29, 2023 4:24 pm

Yes, many feel that the 2010 150 Supersport is underpowered with a 40-HP engine.

You will not recoup your investment if you repower and sell in one to four years.

Keep the boat as is, then sell it, and buy a different boat that suits your needs.

The traditional marketplace principles for boats has returned. The Covid pricing days are over.

Boats and engines do not appreciate in value unless they are collector’s items.
1992 Outrage 17
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jimh
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Re: Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

Postby jimh » Tue May 30, 2023 9:58 am

FlyingAnvils wrote:…I think getting a bigger boat is out of the question…
You are the one who introduced the idea of getting a bigger boat. That is why I pointed out the added costs of bigger boats.

pcrussell50
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Re: Predicting Future Value After Re-power to More than Maximum Power

Postby pcrussell50 » Sun Jul 02, 2023 5:38 pm

I always like to weigh the “hassle factor.” For me, if I can straddle the tongue and hoist it onto the hitch, that reduces the hassle factor in a spontaneous, go/no-go decision to go boating. Our 1998 Alert 17 (special service Montauk) is about the limit. We don't lust after anything bigger.

-Peter